Washington, D.C., 8th October 2024, —US officials say the Biden administration is doing very little with real efforts to revive the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah amid growing tensions on the Israel-Lebanon border.
In the wake of renewed hostilities, which included at least two incidents of sporadic cross-border exchanges, many in the international community had concluded that Washington would be at the center of efforts to negotiate a new ceasefire agreement. However, officials speaking on condition of anonymity said it’s not doing so now.
There have been great strains on the uneasy ceasefire arrangement established in the aftermath of the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. The looming influence of Iran and Hezbollah’s rising military strength have continuously stepped up Israel’s concerns regarding its own place in the region. Renewed fears of a wider conflict come to the fore following renewed clashes between Israeli forces and fighters for Hezbollah.
Yet this aside, says the U.S., other foreign policy objectives take precedence. “At this point, the administration is focused on managing the crisis in Gaza and dealing with all of the broader regional dynamics, particularly with Iran,” says a senior State Department official. “The situation with Hezbollah is certainly not good, but we do not see an imminent risk of full-scale war.”.
Traditionally, the US played a mediating role in efforts to maintain peace in the region, but the current diplomatic strategy of the US appears to focus more on checking the influence of Iran and gaining greater peace accords between Israel and the Arab states.
Experts explain that unless there are renewed diplomatic efforts, the ceasefire has a real chance of breaking down. “The situation becomes dangerously unstable,” commented a former Pentagon official. “Unless there is external pressure, missteps on either side will only worsen, which could easily lead to a full-on war.”.
At the very least in the near term, this Biden administration appears so far unwilling to spend diplomatic capital on reviving the ceasefire agreement: other international actors should instead take the lead-from the UN and European powers to initiate any de-escalation process.
As tensions continue to simmer, the threat of more general regional instability remains alive and appears little closer to peaceful resolution.
