According to a new scientific study, bee production in Brazil, one of the country’s most powerful economic engines, is emitting over twice the greenhouse gas levels allowed under international climate targets.
Published in the journal Environmental Science and Pollution Research, the study estimates that if current trends persist, Brazil’s beef sector would produce between 0.42 and 0.63 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e) by 2030. That is way beyond the 0.26 GtCO₂e limit required to meet the nation’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement.
Billions at stake, experts warn
Researchers say failure to curb these emissions could cost Brazil up to USD 42.6 billion in climate-related damages by 2030. But they also point to a path forward; implementing mitigation strategies and sustainable production techniques could both reduce emissions and improve the sector’s economic competitiveness.
“If we rethink how beef is produced—without necessarily asking people to eat less—we can still meet our climate targets,” said Mariana Vieira da Costa, the study’s lead author and biologist at the Federal University of São Paulo (UNIFESP). Costa and her team emphasize that it’s the way beef is produced, not the consumption, that must change.
Paris’s goals under pressure
Brazil’s NDC, part of the 2015 Paris Agreement, commits the country to cutting emissions by 43% from 2005 levels by 2030. That target will soon be revised ahead of COP30, the global climate summit scheduled to take place in Belém, in the heart of the Brazilian Amazon.
Earlier this year, Brazil updated its climate pledge to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 850 million to 1.05 billion tons of CO₂ equivalent by 2035, equivalent to a 59% to 67% cut from 2005 levels.
But meeting those targets is growing harder. According to the World Meteorological Organization, 2024 is already the hottest year on record, with a global average temperature rise of 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, surpassing the 1.5°C threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement.
From emissions to economics
Costa and coauthors applied the “social cost of carbon” (SCC) to measure the economic effects of beef emissions. SCC estimates the real-world cost per ton of CO₂ that is emitted into the air, including agricultural impacts, public health impacts, and impacts on infrastructure.
“Our findings show that adopting sustainable practices not only reduces emissions but also minimizes the financial toll of climate change,” Costa said. The study estimates potential savings of up to USD 42.6 billion if emissions are reined in by 2030.
Livestock vs. the land
Between 1985 and 2022, Brazil’s agricultural land expanded by 50% to 282.5 million hectares, a third of the country’s territory. Around 58% of this land, 164.3 million hectares, is now pasture.
According to MapBiomas, a research collective tracking land use, roughly 64% of this agricultural expansion came at the expense of forests. Much of it occurred in the Amazon, overtaking even the Cerrado, Brazil’s savannah biome, in the pasture area.
“The beef industry isn’t just tied to emissions,” said co-author and UNIFESP researcher Simone Miraglia. “It’s linked to deforestation, which compounds the climate crisis.”
Sustainable change is still slow
Brazil’s ABC+ Plan, an initiative to promote low-carbon agricultural practices, is designed to address these issues. Yet uptake among producers remains limited.
Costa and her team call for more effective government support, including diversified financial incentives like tax breaks and carbon credits, to push sustainable transformation in the livestock sector.
“We need strong coordination between science, policy, and the people on the ground,” said Costa. “Without it, we risk missing both our climate targets and economic opportunities.”
