In the final quarter of 2023, Europe experienced a significant shift in its energy landscape as wind power surpassed coal in electricity generation for the first time, marking a crucial milestone in the regional transition towards cleaner energy sources.
According to data from the think tank Ember, European power producers achieved a record-breaking 193 terawatt hours (TWh) from wind sites between October and December 2023, outpacing the 184 TWh generated from coal-fired power plants during the same period.
The remarkable growth in wind generation, approximately 20% higher than the fourth quarter of 2022, occurred despite challenges faced by the wind installation sector in 2023, such as elevated labor, materials, and financing costs.
Recent policy support implemented by European lawmakers in late 2023, including financial backing for turbine manufacturers and streamlined permitting processes for developers, is anticipated to further enhance wind generation in 2024. This support may potentially widen the gap between wind and coal power in the region.
While Europe is expected to witness an increase in wind generation capacity in the coming years, the future of coal-fired generation remains uncertain. Key determinants include the coal output in Germany, Poland, and Turkey, which collectively contribute about half of Europe’s coal-fired generation.
The three largest coal consumers in Europe reduced their reliance on coal in the first half of 2023 due to decreased industrial activity, only to increase coal-fired generation in the latter months of the year, primarily driven by rising demand for heating. However, overall coal-fired generation in these countries remains below previous peaks.
The trajectory of coal usage in power generation will hinge on overall economic momentum. If manufacturing activity expands in 2024, stimulated by supportive government policies, power consumption will likely rise, requiring an increase in both fossil fuel and renewable energy generation.
Regardless of the industrial scenario in 2024, developers are poised to escalate wind power projects in key markets like Germany, the United Kingdom, Spain, France, and Denmark. Government tenders for new wind capacity, both onshore and offshore, are expected in 2024, following European Union policy agreements in the previous year.
Germany plans to tender 8 gigawatts (GW) of new offshore capacity in 2024, while Denmark is set to initiate auctions for a total of 9 GW of offshore projects. France, too, aims to bolster its wind power capacity by supporting the construction of two floating wind farms with a combined capacity of up to 280 megawatts (MW) off its south coast.
As these projects come online, they are projected to surpass Europe’s total wind generation of 604 TWh in 2023, contributing to the region’s ongoing expansion of clean power. Although coal-fired power generation may experience a temporary uptick with industrial recovery, the planned development pipeline suggests that wind power will consistently outshine coal in Europe’s electricity generation mix in the long run.
